New Zealand have been the standout team of the tournament, but Pakistan enter the final on a high after a dominant batting display against South Africa. It’s rare for a tournament final to also serve as a warm-up, but that’s exactly what this Pakistan vs. New Zealand showdown in Karachi will be. There’s a trophy on the line, yet just five days later, the two sides will meet again in the opening match of the Champions Trophy, making this encounter a preview of the bigger battle ahead. In many ways, this was the final most expected when the tri-series was planned—except, perhaps, for South Africa.
Pakistan’s Momentum vs New Zealand’s Consistency
New Zealand have been the most consistent team so far, but Pakistan arrive with renewed confidence after pulling off a dramatic comeback to claim second place. Their thrilling chase against South Africa was not just about the victory, but how it was achieved. Mohammad Rizwan and Salman Agha’s record-breaking 260-run stand for the fourth wicket was a masterclass in controlled aggression, easing concerns about Pakistan’s over-reliance on Fakhar Zaman at the top. If the middle order continues to deliver, Pakistan’s batting unit could find much-needed balance ahead of the Champions Trophy.
However, Pakistan’s death bowling remains a concern. They leaked 98 runs in the final six overs against New Zealand and 87 in the last seven against South Africa. On both occasions, a single batter in top form exploited their vulnerability—Glenn Phillips did it one day, Heinrich Klaasen the next. This gives New Zealand confidence that they can stay in the game until the final overs, knowing Pakistan’s bowling can be put under pressure late on.
New Zealand, on the other hand, has executed their game plan with precision. There’s a calmness about this side, even when under pressure. They didn’t panic when they were behind the required run rate against Pakistan, instead waiting for the right moment to accelerate. When Matthew Breetzke launched an attack in the death overs, they stayed composed, knowing the target was still within reach. Their ability to remain unfazed in crunch moments has been a defining feature of their campaign.
A key difference between the two sides has been New Zealand’s use of spin. Their slower bowlers have been significantly more effective, controlling the game on these surfaces. Mitchell Santner, in the form of his life, has led the charge alongside Michael Bracewell, Phillips, and Rachin Ravindra. They collectively bowled 26 of the 47.5 overs in the last encounter, stifling Pakistan’s batting. While Pakistan’s spinners bowled a similar number of overs, they lacked the same level of control and impact.
A Final with Extra Stakes
Despite being a tri-series final, this match carries extra significance as a precursor to next week’s Champions Trophy opener. Winning here won’t just earn a trophy—it will provide a psychological edge going into the bigger tournament.
In the Spotlight: Fakhar Zaman and Kane Williamson
Fakhar Zaman’s explosive starts have been crucial for Pakistan. His 69-ball 84 against New Zealand in Lahore kept them in the chase until his dismissal, after which the innings collapsed. His quickfire 41 against South Africa helped Pakistan post their third-fastest ten-over score in ODI history. With Saim Ayub injured, Fakhar’s form is even more vital. If Pakistan are to succeed in knockout games, his performance could dictate their fate.
On the other hand, Kane Williamson has been in sublime form. He followed up a half-century against Pakistan with an unbeaten hundred against South Africa, demonstrating his ability to adapt to different surfaces. Since the 2023 World Cup, New Zealand haven’t played many ODIs, but Williamson has seamlessly picked up from where he left off. His composure in big games is well known, and his current form is a warning sign for Pakistan and any team he faces in the coming days.
Pitch and Conditions
Karachi’s pitch has played similarly to Lahore’s—flat, with a lightning-quick outfield. The last ODI here was a high-scoring affair, and another run-fest could be on the cards. Expect warm, sunny conditions with temperatures reaching up to 30 °C.
Stats and Trivia
- Fakhar Zaman has an impressive record in semi-finals and finals, scoring 57, 114, 91, 55*, and 0 in his five white-ball knockout matches. Pakistan won three of those games but lost the last two.
- Kane Williamson recently became the fifth New Zealand batter to cross 7,000 ODI runs. He is now 148 runs away from becoming the first Kiwi to reach 19,000 international runs.
- New Zealand have played in 12 finals of multi-team white-ball tournaments since 2000, winning four and losing eight. Their last victory in such a final came way back in 2005.
